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Financial Modelling 3

3 way financial modelling helps you manage your business:

it allows you to predict the effects of your decisions

it helps you raise finance to grow the business

every plan is designed to meet your unique needs

Most small businesses are managed on gut instinct. The owner/founder reacts to the immediate situation without planning too far ahead. All too often, larger enterprises operate the same way. At Sobell Rhodes we urge most of our clients to think more broadly about their business in order to make better decisions. It’s not just sensible, it can be liberating and exciting.

No costs, no obligations, no nonsense

At the heart of the process is the question ‘what if?’

What we do is look at three elements of your business: your cash-flow, your profit and loss account and your balance sheet. It’s called 3-way forecasting and while it can be mathematically complex, the output is a roadmap that often reveals opportunities ahead you might never have considered.

What if…?

For instance, imagine you are Red Red Wines Ltd. You are selling 5,000 bottles a month at an average price of £8 each.

What if… you change the business model and sell posher wines at £14 a bottle?

If you sell 2,500 bottles, it looks as if you will be making less money. Except your distribution costs are now lower. And your VAT.

Added to which, wine buyers seem to be moving upmarket. Maybe you should be moving with them? In which case, what if…you sell 3,000 bottles a month. Profits will be up but maybe you will need to hire more staff.

That is what financial modelling is. It’s working with us to formulate a coherent business strategy. And the partner assigned to you is like having a Finance Director on board, someone you can turn to for advice and who will give you monthly updates.

Have a clear understanding of how your decisions impact SALES & PROFIT.

Delve deeper into your income streams.  This if often split by product / service / region.

Predict when there may be cashflow shortfalls;  How the shortfall will be solved;  Understand what is impacting cash.

Jeremy Leboff

“Do you ever look a the elements of your business and ask the question ‘What if?’ “

Jeremy is a Senior Partner at Sobell Rhodes

What does a 3-way forecast look like?

P&L forecast

We consider the profits you are likely to make over an extended period. This longer-term gives you greater clarity in making business decisions.

Cashflow forecast

This shows the effects on your bank position and when the peaks and troughs of available cash will occur, which could necessitate further finance requirements.

Balance Sheet forecast

This shows your future assets and liabilities based on the forecasts of your profit and loss and cashflow. The output shows the future financial wellbeing of your business.

clarity

Many small businesses often think this degree of analysis is not for them.

As proactive accountants, our advice to clients more often than not is to think of modelling as an investment in the future. All too frequently what holds a business back is not lack of ambition but lack of a plan.

What does a 3-way forecast look like?

P&L forecast

We consider the profits you are likely to make over an extended period. This longer-term view counterbalances the short-term needs of cashflow.

L

Cashflow forecast

Cashflow is a more short-term view of how much or how little money you have, irrespective of how profitable you are as a business.
L

Balance Sheet forecast

This is a snapshot of your business right now: your assets, your liabilities and your prospects combined to assess its health and value.

clarity

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This sort of deep-dive analysis requires expertise which comes at a price. For that reason, small businesses often think it’s not for them.

As proactive accountants, our advice to clients more often than not is to think of modelling as an investment in the future. All too frequently what holds a business back is not lack of ambition but lack of a plan.

What other support can we offer?

Raising finance

If you’re looking for financing to enlarge the business or to buy a company, your loan provider will almost certainly want to see your 3-way forecast.

Ideally, the forecast should cover three years or so. It’s good business practice to continuously maintain your modelling rather than just commission a single review.

Saving you time and avoiding mistakes

As expert modellers, we can help you replace laborious manual tasks (inputting data into spreadsheets, for example) with tech solutions that are relevant to both your needs and your budget. Questions about deal-making, headcount and even your competitors’ pricing strategies can all be answered swiftly in order to help you make informed decisions.

Training

As you grow, you may want to take on more people – including in your finance team. Our trainers are used by other accountancy firms to instruct them in the use of the many different tools across the many different kinds of financial and operational forecasting models. We are pragmatists who know from running our own business that simplicity is a virtue.

No costs, no obligations, no nonsense